SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170703
MIZ000-171200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 AM CST SUN FEB 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 170703Z - 171200Z
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWARD ACROSS LOWER MI
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION LIKELY.
OWING TO AMPLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION REGIME...EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD LOWER MI OVERNIGHT.
GRADUAL SATURATION/PRECIPITATION ONSET IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MI THROUGH 09Z-12Z PER OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. MAINTENENCE OF A SHALLOW SUB-32F
LAYER WILL LIKELY FAVOR FREEZING RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WHILE THE 00Z OBSERVED RAOB
FROM DETROIT WAS ENTIRELY SUB-FREEZING IN THE VERTICAL...
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL RESULT IN
CONSIDERABLE WARMING ALOFT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SUCH
THAT PARTIAL/FULL MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS WILL RESULT IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS WARMING
TREND ALOFT IS ALREADY WELL-SAMPLED BY TRENDS IN TAMDAR SOUNDINGS
FROM NEAR DETROIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS SUCH...FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER MI WHERE SUB-32F SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE MAINTAINED THROUGH 12Z-15Z.
.GUYER.. 02/17/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
42428286 42188318 42638467 43318609 44078619 44648572
44858444 43768289 43108264
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