SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210851
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-210915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CST THU FEB 21 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TX INTO CENTRAL/NRN LA AND FAR SRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 210851Z - 210915Z
TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
ERN TX INTO CENTRAL/NRN LA AND SRN AR.
WW IS POSSIBLE.
REGIONAL RADARS/LIGHTNING DATA AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF E TX SINCE
0730Z FROM 40 W LFK EWD INTO CENTRAL LA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING WITHIN INCREASING WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING
SLY LLJ INTO E TX/LA AND ALONG ERN EXTENT OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM. ADDITIONAL ASCENT IS
EXPECTED AS EXIT REGION OF 50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATES INTO
THIS AREA BY 12Z. MUCAPE VALUES AOA 500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AROUND 50 KT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...SOME WITH
ROTATION...SUGGESTING AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL. STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL MS WSWWD
INTO NRN LA TO A SURFACE WAVE IN NORTH CENTRAL TX MAY HAVE AN
INCREASED THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES..GIVEN ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...ESPECIALLY ALONG AXIS OF LLJ.
.PETERS.. 02/21/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
31079205 30909358 30879485 31219591 32099584 32979538
33419466 33309349 33199195 32319172
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