SWODY1
SPC AC 292039
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN INTO SWRN LA...
CORRECTED TO REMOVE SPURIOUS POINT IN SLIGHT RISK LINE
..S CENTRAL CONUS FROM TX/SERN OK EWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
MODESTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
S OF WEAKENING FRONT. SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
EXTENDS FROM SWRN LA INTO TX...WHERE DEWPOINTS NOW INTO THE MID 60S
BENEATH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE YIELDING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST WLYS AT MID-LEVELS ARE RESULTING
IN LIMITED SHEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATION ACROSS THE TX/LA PORTION OF THE THREAT AREA APPEARS TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. THREAT FOR HAIL AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS APPEARS GREATEST ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA
-- AND THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK THIS FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY MARGINAL HAIL AND AN ISOLATED STRONGER GUST OR TWO
ARE ANTICIPATED -- WITH THE THREAT EXPECTED ATTM TO STAY BELOW
SLIGHT RISK/15% THRESHOLDS.
WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET W OF THE MS VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION/NWD SPREAD OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT OVER THIS PORTION OF
THE AREA...ALONG WITH A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH
ELEVATED STORMS.
.GOSS.. 03/29/2008
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