SWODY1
SPC AC 011613
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST SAT MAR 01 2008
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
COLD TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE PAC NW WILL BE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY/TONIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT WRN MT SWWD
ACROSS NRN NV TO CENTRAL CA WILL BY EVENING REACH A LINE FROM ERN MT
INTO CENTRAL UT SWWD OFFSHORE SCENTRAL CA.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM CUT OFF UPPER LOW NOW CROSSING NRN BAJA WILL
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE EWD THRU PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT
FALLS.
AIR MASS BOTH AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND SRN UPPER LOW IS QUITE DRY AND
INITIALLY NOT SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION
OF STRONG HEATING...FRONTAL LIFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES EXPECTED TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER ALONG FRONTAL ZONE AS
FAR S AS NRN UT. ALSO THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 00Z
AHEAD OF SRN UPPER LOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STREAMING NWD THRU THE SRN HI PLAINS.
THERE WILL BE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF PAC NW IN
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AS LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP UNDER THE COLD
UPPER TROUGH. ACTUAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED AND
UNORGANIZED GIVEN THE EXPECTED MINIMAL INSTABILITY.
.HALES/LEVIT.. 03/01/2008
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