SWODY1
SPC AC 031304
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0704 AM CST MON MAR 03 2008
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LA...MS...AL...SE
AR AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM E TX INTO PARTS OF TN...KY AND GA...
..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. LONG-TERM SATELLITE
LOOPS SUGGEST THAT ERN NM UPR LOW HAS NEARLY REACHED IT'S SRN-MOST
LATITUDE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO N CNTRL TX LATE TODAY
..BEFORE TURNING NE ACROSS WRN/NRN AR TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY AS NRN
STREAM TROUGH MOVES FROM MN/WRN ONTARIO INTO WRN QUEBEC.
AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN TROUGH...NOW EXTENDING
FROM LWR MI TO AR...SHOULD MOVE E TO A NRN NEW ENGLAND/WV/MIDDLE TN
LINE 12Z TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...EXPECT SRN PLNS COLD FRONT TO
CONTINUE SURGING S/SE ACROSS TX. A LOW EVOLVING INVOF RESULTING
INFLECTION POINT NEAR THE ARKLATEX SHOULD SLOWLY DEEPEN IN RESPONSE
TO EJECTION OF NM/TX TROUGH. THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE BNA AREA BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..E TX INTO THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST REGION...
QLCS ALONG CNTRL/E TX COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO SVR
THROUGH THE DAY AS LINE CONTINUES GENERALLY E/SE ACROSS THE SABINE
RIVER INTO WRN LA BY EARLY AFTN. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELD
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE DURING THE PERIOD AS NM/TX UPR LOW CONTINUES
EWD...STORM STRENGTH WILL BE MITIGATED BY CONTINUING PRESENCE OF EML
CAP AND LOW STRATUS. NEVERTHELESS...SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
BROKEN SEGMENTS OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES.
THE SVR THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATER THIS AFTN AND...ESPECIALLY...
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LA E AND NE
INTO SE AR...MS...AL...WRN/MIDDLE TN AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS 100 KT MID LVL SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH TX UPR LOW
FINALLY REDEVELOPS ON E SIDE OF EJECTING UPR SYSTEM. SUBSTANTIAL
STRENGTHENING OF DEEP WIND FIELD ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN
LONG...HOOKED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 SRH AOA 400 M2/S2. MERIDIONAL UPR
FLOW WILL KEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES RELATIVELY WEAK. BUT
DESTABLIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
/DEWPOINTS AOA 60 F N TO THE TN BORDER BY 06Z TUESDAY/ SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG QLCS. EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/LEWPS WILL COULD YIELD HAVE THE THIS REGIME...FAVORABLE
FOR
.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/03/2008
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