DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 041612
SWODY1
SPC AC 041609

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN GA...SOUTH CAROLINA...NORTH CAROLINA...AND
SOUTHEAST VA...

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...

A VIGOROUS AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND AFFECT THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
STATES TODAY...AND OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC REGION
TONIGHT. DESPITE ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY...VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS AND LARGE SCALE FORCING SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE STORMS OVER A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA TODAY FROM EASTERN GA TO
THE CAROLINA COAST.

A LARGE SHIELD OF PRE-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST
VA INTO MUCH OF GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS BENEATH
LOW LEVEL JET AND IN REGION OF VERY STRONG WARM ADVECTION. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIMITING AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION...MODELS SUGGEST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR AND TO
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON FROM PARTS OF WESTERN NC INTO EASTERN GA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FOR A
RISK OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD AFTER DARK TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST.

THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL KY SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL AL. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLEARING
AHEAD OF FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ZONE OF AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. JUXTAPOSITION OF 100+ KNOT MID
LEVEL JET MAX AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE/SUPERCELLULAR STORMS ALONG THE FRONT FROM
EASTERN TN INTO EASTERN GA...BECOMING MERGED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
ACTIVITY BY EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE PRESENT
WITH THESE STORMS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO/WIND THREAT MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS STORMS
ORGANIZE INTO A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE AND RACE ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS.

.HART/SCHNEIDER.. 03/04/2008

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