SWODY1
SPC AC 101628
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2008
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..S TX THIS AFTERNOON...
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL AND
SE TX AS OF LATE MORNING. THIS CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN ADVANCE
OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EWD FROM THE TX BIG
BEND REGION. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS AND MORE RECENT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE
VALUES TO REACH 500-1000 J/KG FROM S TX ENEWD TO PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON...BASED ON BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM.
THUS...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
THE STORMS.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
ACROSS S TX...AND GIVEN THE MODEST INSTABILITY...THE OVERALL SEVERE
STORM THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL. THE STRONGER STORMS...WHICH
MAY DEVELOP SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BEFORE THE
CONVECTION PROGRESSES OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING.
.THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 03/10/2008
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