SWODY1
SPC AC 161948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0248 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
..SRN PLAINS/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGHLY MERIDIONAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
CLOSED-OFF LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET BECOMES
ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN PLAINS. RAPID ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ACROSS WEST TX AND SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 50S F ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. DIFFLUENCE IN THE EXIT REGION
OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE NM AND SRN CO DURING THE EVENING. MODEL
FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EXPANDING THE CONVECTION EWD
ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME.
LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ALREADY IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE EJECTING MID-LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN
THE STRONG SHEAR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM COVERAGE AFTER 06Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LATE TONIGHT SHOW INSTABILITY PRIMARILY ABOVE 700 MB WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS ELEVATED IN NATURE. THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CELLS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DEVELOP SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY IN THE LUBBOCK AREA...THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A
CAPPING INVERSION WILL INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT THERE. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS SRN KS INTO SW MO...WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SHEAR SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT LATE IN THE PERIOD.
.BROYLES.. 03/16/2008
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