SWODY1
SPC AC 191940
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2008
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE...NWD TO
THE DELMARVA...INCLUDING REGIONS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO ERN
KY/TN...
..ERN TN/ERN KY/WV...
STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING HAS SPREAD AHEAD OF SFC FRONT THAT IS
ADVANCING ACROSS KY AND TN. THIS DRYING HAS ALLOWED BOUNDARY LAYER
TO WARM/DESTABILIZE WHERE SFC DEW POINTS ARE NOW RISING THROUGH THE
MID 50S TO NEAR 60F. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO CONVECTION HAS
DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY ALONG SFC WIND SHIFT AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. IN FACT...SEVERAL SMALL SUPERCELLS
HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS MIDDLE TN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT SEEMINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. GIVEN THE FOCUSED/STRONG ASCENT ACROSS
THIS REGION IT APPEARS THIS CONCENTRATED LINE OF BROKEN SUPERCELLS
WILL ADVANCE QUICKLY NEWD AHEAD OF FRONTAL SURGE INTO ERN PORTIONS
OF KY/TN BEFORE SPREADING INTO SRN WV. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES.
..ELSEWHERE...
DOWNSTREAM...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS EXISTS WITHIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT
FROM THE PANHANDLE OF FL...NEWD ACROSS GA INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS AND VA. WEAK CONVECTIVE LINE WITH SPARSE LIGHTNING IS
OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS INTO NRN FL IS VERY MARGINAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE QUITE STRONG. EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME THEAT FOR LOCALLY
STRONG OR PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS WITH NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION AS
ANY MIXING COULD TRANSPORT STRONGER FLOW ALOFT THROUGH DOWNDRAFT
PROCESSES.
FARTHER NORTH...IF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
DELMARVA THERE MAY BE A LOCALIZED ENHANCED RISK LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS THIS REGION. STRONGEST FORCING WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS INTO THE DELMARVA AS 100+KT SPEED MAX EJECTS NEWD AFTER
00Z. THERMAL PROFILES WILL NEED CONSIDERABLE ADJUSTMENT BEFORE
SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT IT APPEARS THIS MAY OCCUR
WITHIN THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS AND PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
.DARROW.. 03/19/2008
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