SWODY1
SPC AC 291248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..TX/ERN OK TO AL THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MESSY SITUATION IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE NW
GULF COAST TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. A DIFFUSE SRN STREAM
PERSISTS FROM NRN MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...WITH SUBTLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EWD/ENEWD OVER E TX AND OVER NW
MEXICO. THE E TX TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOOSE CLUSTER OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE ARKLATEX...WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL HAIL NEAR SEVERE
LEVELS THIS MORNING.
FARTHER S...THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE APPEARS TO HAVE STALLED FROM
S CENTRAL INTO SE TX...THEN EWD ACROSS CENTRAL LA/MS/AL. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DRIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT LATER
TODAY...ALLOWING THE MARITIME AIR MASS TO SPREAD SLOWLY NWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/E TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY...ALONG WITH THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EWD FROM TX TO
LA/MS. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR FROM LA EWD TO AL SUGGEST THAT MULTICELL STORMS WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS.
12Z SOUNDINGS FROM LCH/CRP/BRO SHOW COOLING IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
SINCE 00Z...AND IT APPEARS THAT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
MORE PROBABLE TODAY ACROSS TX COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS OF 67-70 F...7-8 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND A LITTLE
STRONGER DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR /COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER E/ MAY
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. AS WITH
AREAS FARTHER E...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE STORM THREATS. OVERNIGHT...THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRENGTHENING LLJ AND WAA. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH
THIS CONVECTION. THE COMPLICATED AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE OVERALL
WEATHER SCENARIO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A RELATIVELY BROAD AREA OF LOW
HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES...AS OPPOSED TO TRYING TO DELINEATE A SLIGHT
RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
.THOMPSON/SMITH.. 03/29/2008
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