Sunday, March 16, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 170118
SWODY1
SPC AC 170117

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0817 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
REGION...

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES TONIGHT...WHILE
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES ALONG THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH. A LEE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED DOWNSTREAM FROM
THIS FEATURE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF SERN NM AND FAR W TX.

RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING NWWD THROUGH TX WITHIN ZONE
OF INCREASING SELY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE.
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S HAVE ADVANCED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS ABILENE
WITH UPPER 60S ALONG THE TX COAST. EVENING RAOB DATA SHOW EML WITH 8
C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF TX. STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN MOIST ADVECTION BENEATH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND CONTRIBUTE TO 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE OVER WRN PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED
MUCH OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...DESTABILIZATION AND PERSISTENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE CAP FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE LAYER.
HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DIAL.. 03/17/2008

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