SWODY1
SPC AC 021609
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2008
VALID 021630Z - 031200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/E TX NEWD INTO
PARTS OF KS/MO AND SRN IA......
..SYNOPTIC DISCUSSION...
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD THRU SRN ROCKIES REACHING
SRN HI PLAINS BY 12Z MON. IN ADVANCE OF MAIN SYSTEM...MID/UPPER
IMPULSE BEING EJECTED NEWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK THIS AM AND
WEAKENING TONIGHT IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER LOWER MO VALLEY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT FROM NERN NEB SWWD INTO SERN CORNER CO WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY SEWD REACHING MKC-ICT-AMA LN BY 00Z AND A
STL-FTW-TX BIG BEND BY 12Z.
40-50KT LLJ AHEAD OF FRONT CONTINUES TO SPREAD MODIFIED GULF AIR NWD
THRU SRN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS WITH 50 DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS SRN IA BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
..CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...
CONCERN AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP TIED TO
STRENGTH OF CAP AND HOW QUICKLY THE COMBINATION OF HEATING AND LARGE
SCALE ASCENT CAN REMOVE IT. THIS MORNING AS OBSERVED ON THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS AN IMPRESSIVE EML HAS SPREAD EWD AHEAD OF FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES GENERALLY IN EXCESS OF
8C/KM. WHILE THIS FAVORS RAPID DEVELOP OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
THE CAP WEAKENS...THERE IS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FROM THE MODELS AS TO
WHEN THAT WILL OCCUR.
THE ASCENT AND MID LEVEL COOLING SPREADING NEWD ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEAD IMPULSE NOW TX PANHANDLE WOULD BE IN FAVORABLE POSITION TO
SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM ERN KS INTO
OK...PROVIDED CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE
STRONG AND WITH SOME BACKING IN LOW LEVELS...SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL INITIALLY BE LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE ...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES. HAVE EXTENDED SEVERE THREAT NEWD INTO SRN IA AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AS COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE DEVELOPS
MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.
DRY LINE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK/TX
BORDER SSWWD TO TX BIG BEND. CAP WILL BE A GREATER ISSUE THE
FURTHER S FOR STORM INITIATION PRIOR TO 00Z. HOWEVER WITH MLCAPES TO
1500 J/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40-50KT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THRU THE EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
STRONG COLD FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE GULF MOISTURE AND THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WITH APPROACH OF VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH FROM SRN
ROCKIES.
.HALES/CROSBIE.. 03/02/2008
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