SWODY1
SPC AC 230039
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2008
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SRN PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PLUME OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN WNWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST TX.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ENE OF MIDLAND IS SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY EXPAND ESEWD TOWARD THE
WRN TX HILL COUNTRY THIS EVENING.
CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KT WHICH WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED CELLS WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURE. IN
ADDITION...RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND
8.0 C/KM WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -18C WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. LARGE SFC-TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS AND A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS WELL.
WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD END THE SEVERE THREAT IN A FEW HOURS.
.BROYLES.. 03/23/2008
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