SWODY1
SPC AC 021256
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2008
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL/E TX NE INTO PARTS
OF KS/MO...
..SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW
REGIME EVOLVES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER THE LWR 48. STRONG TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SE ACROSS THE GRT BASIN ATTM SHOULD REACH THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE CONTINUING SE AS A CLOSED LOW
INTO ERN NM EARLY MONDAY. MEANWHILE...NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE E
INTO MN/WRN ONTARIO AS WEAKENING SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE
NM/TX BORDER LIFTS RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLNS.
AT LWR LEVELS...STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN BRANCH TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY S/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS/LWR MO VLY
TODAY...AND WILL CONTINUE SE TONIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
LWR MI THROUGH CNTRL IL...S CNTRL MO...EXTREME SE OK...AND S CNTRL
TX BY 12Z MONDAY. FARTHER SW...COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH GRT BASIN
SYSTEM WILL MOVE E ACROSS NM TODAY...AND MERGE WITH THE PLNS COLD
FRONT OVER W TX THIS EVENING. S AND E OF THESE BOUNDARIES...A DRY
LINE SHOULD EVOLVE OVER W TX AND MIX E INTO NW TX AND FAR SW OK BY
LATE IN THE DAY.
..CNTRL/E TX NNE INTO PARTS OF KS/MO...
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN FROM TX NWD INTO ERN
PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLNS TODAY AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTS/
DRY LINE. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S SHOULD REACH N INTO SRN
KS/SW MO BY EVENING...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED
ACROSS SE OK AND ALL OF CNTRL/E TX BY EARLY MONDAY.
FOG PRODUCT SATELLITE DATA AND SFC OBSERVATION TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
LOW STRATUS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
LIMIT SUNSHINE IN WARM SECTOR OVER MUCH OF TX AND A LARGE PART OF OK
TODAY. SOMEWHAT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SFC HEATING WILL EXIST AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT IN KS. NEVERTHELESS...INCREASING MOISTURE WITH EVEN
MODEST HEATING SHOULD BOOST SBCAPE TO AOA 1000 J/KG ACROSS TX AND
SRN/WRN OK...WITH VALUES TO NEAR 500 J/KG EXPECTED NWD INTO KS.
PRESENT LOCATION OF SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE AND ITS EXPECTED NEWD
TRACK SUGGEST THAT W TX AND PARTS OF OK LIKELY WILL EXPERIENCE
NEGATIVE UVV THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. ASCENT WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
..HOWEVER...EXIST OVER CNTRL/SRN KS. THE FIRST STORMS OF THE DAY
MAY VERY WELL FORM EARLY THIS AFTN IN THAT REGION AS COLD FRONT
PROVIDES LOW LEVEL UPLIFT. THE STORMS LIKELY WILL EXPAND BOTH NE
AND SW ALONG THE FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES SEWD...WITH
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A QLCS.
WITH MODEST INSTABILITY OFFSET BY A FAVORABLE WIND FIELD /500 MB SW
TO SSWLY FLOW AOA 60 KTS/...THE STORMS LIKELY WILL BECOME
SUSTAINED/SVR. AND...WHILE PRIMARY STORM MODE ALONG THE FRONT
LIKELY WILL BE QUASI-LINEAR...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL CONTAIN
SMALL-SCALE BOWS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES.
LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...OTHER STORMS LIKELY WILL FORM AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL/N CNTRL TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY CONFLUENCE ON WRN EDGE OF INCREASINGLY
MOIST SSWLY LLJ AND THE ONSET OF WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING GRT BASIN TROUGH. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY
ALSO FORM ALONG THE DRY LINE. GIVEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WIND
FIELD AND INSTABILITY OVER REGION...THE RESULTING SUPERCELLS MAY
REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE FOR SOME TIME AND POSE A THREAT FOR
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO HAIL/WIND.
LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT THAT THE PREFRONTAL STORMS WILL BE OVERTAKEN
BY EXPANDING QLCS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A SVR THREAT WILL EXIST
FROM PARTS OF MO/ERN OK/AR SW INTO CNTRL TX...WITH GREATEST THREAT
EXPECTED OVER TX AND SRN OK. WHILE THE MAIN OVERNIGHT THREATS
LIKELY WILL BE DMGG WIND/HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES ALSO MAY OCCUR
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
.CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/02/2008
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