SWODY1
SPC AC 061958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST THU MAR 06 2008
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF SRN/SERN TX TO THE
NWRN GULF COAST...
..PARTS OF SRN/SERN TX TO THE NWRN GULF COAST...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS A
NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AND
SRN STREAM TROUGH TRACKS EWD TO E TX BY 12Z FRIDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AR SWWD
THROUGH NERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL TX WHERE A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED AT
40 ENE LRD. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED ESEWD FROM THIS LOW
TO NEAR CRP AND THEN OFFSHORE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. AS THE SRN
STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE MID/UPPER TX COAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE LOW SHOULD REACH JUST INLAND OF THE MS
DELTA/NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH THE WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.
ONGOING CLUSTERS OF TSTMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/S TX
APPEAR TO BE TIED TO SUB-TROPICAL MID LEVEL IMPULSE NOW ENTERING S
TX. ASCENT WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TOWARD THE TX COAST WITH INCREASING WAA RESULTING IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TONIGHT.
MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN THE SMALL WARM SECTOR COMBINED WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT AND MODEST LOW LEVEL VEERING
SUPPORT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES AS THE
SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT SPREAD NEWD ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX COAST.
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT
COMBINED WITH CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
ROTATING TSTMS WITH AN ATTENDANT HAIL THREAT FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL
TX TO THE TX COAST AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES ESEWD.
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVERNIGHT AND MOVES INLAND TO LWR MS VALLEY
BY 12Z FRI. LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE GREATER
THETAE AIR NOW ADVECTING N TOWARD THE NRN GULF TO REACH CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL AREAS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A THREAT FOR SURFACE BASED
SUPERCELLS AS FAR E AS FL PANHANDLE AS WIND PROFILES WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE WITH LLJ INCREASING TO 50-60KT. ALTHOUGH GREATEST THREAT
MAY REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...THIS OUTLOOK HAS EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK
A LITTLE FARTHER EWD THROUGH SRN LA...WITH FURTHER UPGRADE POSSIBLE
EWD IN LATER FORECASTS.
..FL PENINSULA...
AT 19Z...THE ERN EXTENT OF A WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO EXTENDED THROUGH SRN FL FROM N OF FMY TO 35 N PBI. AIR MASS
S OF THE WARM FRONT IS MOIST WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO 70 CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS S FL AS THE WARM FRONT RETREATS NWD
AND ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. DESPITE THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A
GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON.
FARTHER N...A LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO...
APPARENTLY TIED TO A MID LEVEL IMPULSE...WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN FL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE
A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
.PETERS/SMITH.. 03/06/2008
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