SWODY1
SPC AC 100048
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SUN MAR 09 2008
VALID 100100Z - 101200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
W-CNTRL TX...
..WRN/CNTRL TX...
TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING FROM W-CNTRL TX TO JUST NW OF THE
METROPLEX ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OR INVERTED TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW NEAR THE PECOS RIVER E OF FST NEWD INTO
N-CNTRL TX. THE MOST INTENSE STORM WHICH HAS EXHIBITED SOME
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER MITCHELL AND NOLAN COUNTIES IS
OCCURRING IN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL AND RESULTANT SBCAPES OF AROUND 1000
J/KG. MOREOVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF
STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW /40-50 KT AT 500 MB/ WHICH IS RESULTING IN
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SLY LLJ WILL BE
MAINTAINED TONIGHT FROM SRN INTO CNTRL TX IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING
LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD FROM WRN TX INTO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. THIS LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED MOISTENING TO BOUNDARY
LAYER ACROSS W-CNTRL AND CNTRL TX OVERNIGHT WITH AIR MASS REMAINING
AT LEAST WEAKLY UNSTABLE...DESPITE THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.
AS SUCH...EXPECT TSTMS TO CONTINUE...PERHAPS EVEN GROW UPSCALE INTO
CLUSTERS WITHIN PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. THE PRESENCE OF
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATE
A CONTINUED THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
.MEAD.. 03/10/2008
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