DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291620
SWODY1
SPC AC 291617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

UPPER PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY UNCHANGED TODAY WITH ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION...WHILE A COLD UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST STATES. A BROAD AREA OF
MARGINALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IS PRESENT FROM TX ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY. THIS REGION WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT
LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW OF THEM MAY
BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN
DEFINING AN AREA OF GREATER THREAT IS NOT VERY HIGH AT THIS TIME.

..TX...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH TX. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD BUT WEAK LARGE SCALE UVVS OVER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TX LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA AS WARM FRONT DRIFTS NORTHWARD. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT ONE OR TWO CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS WILL FORM
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR BOUNDARY AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS REGION.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A
RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. THIS AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK THIS
AFTERNOON IF LOCATION OF GREATER THREAT CAN BE DETERMINED.

..LA/MS/AL...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTICITY CENTER
OVER NORTHEAST LA. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
MS/AL THIS TODAY. CLEARING SKIES AHEAD OF SYSTEM WILL HELP
DESTABILIZE REGION AND POSE A RISK OF THUNDERSTORM RE-DEVELOPMENT.
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. PLEASE REFER TO UPCOMING MCD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.HART/JEWELL.. 03/29/2008

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