SWODY1
SPC AC 291956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
VALID 292000Z - 301200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN INTO SWRN LA...
..S CENTRAL CONUS FROM TX/SERN OK EWD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
MODESTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES
S OF WEAKENING FRONT. SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
EXTENDS FROM SWRN LA INTO TX...WHERE DEWPOINTS NOW INTO THE MID 60S
BENEATH STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE YIELDING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
MIXED-LAYER CAPE.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH MODEST WLYS AT MID-LEVELS ARE RESULTING
IN LIMITED SHEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...THOUGH CAPE/SHEAR
COMBINATION ACROSS THE TX/LA PORTION OF THE THREAT AREA APPEARS TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELLULAR ORGANIZATION. THREAT FOR HAIL AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS APPEARS GREATEST ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE AREA
-- AND THUS WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK THIS FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE...ONLY MARGINAL HAIL AND AN ISOLATED STRONGER GUST OR TWO
ARE ANTICIPATED -- WITH THE THREAT EXPECTED ATTM TO STAY BELOW
SLIGHT RISK/15% THRESHOLDS.
WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET W OF THE MS VALLEY MAY SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION/NWD SPREAD OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT OVER THIS PORTION OF
THE AREA...ALONG WITH A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH
ELEVATED STORMS.
.GOSS.. 03/29/2008
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