SWODY1
SPC AC 270041
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2008
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..MO/IL...
00Z SOUNDING FROM SGF SUGGESTS AIRMASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE
ACROSS MO THIS EVENING AS MUCAPE IS ROUGHLY 500 J/KG. VEERED LLJ
AND DEEP SWLY TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THIS INSTABILITY IS THE SOURCE
REGION FOR THE MCS THAT IS SPREADING/DECAYING EWD ACROSS IL/IND.
UPSTREAM...00Z SOUNDING FROM OUN IS CONSIDERABLY MORE UNSTABLE AND
IS ONLY WEAKLY INHIBITED AT 700MB. IT APPEARS STEEPER LAPSE RATE
PLUME/INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD BACK INTO MO LATER TONIGHT BUT THERE
IS REASON TO BELIEVE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT
WILL STRUGGLE TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WHERE INSTABILITY
WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT MORE ROBUST POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY
PERSIST ACROSS ERN MO/SRN IL/SRN IND WHERE ELEVATED CAPE SHOULD BE
INADEQUATE TO JUSTIFY AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THIS REASON WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR LARGE HAIL
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN THE GENERATION ZONE ACROSS MO
AGAIN LATER TONIGHT.
.DARROW.. 03/27/2008
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