SWODY2
SPC AC 020652
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2008
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN AR AND MUCH OF LA AND
MS...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX/FAR ERN OK EWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND STRONG
TORNADOES.
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO
LIFT ENEWD INTO SRN MO BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO A
100 KT MID LEVEL JET LIFTING FROM SWRN TX NEWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT FROM MO INTO CENTRAL TX MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ACCELERATE
EWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...AS A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL TX
SHIFTS EWD AND DEEPENS ACROSS AR AND INTO TN DURING THE PERIOD.
..ERN TX/FAR ERN OK EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
A BROAD BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...LIKELY WILL BE ONGOING
AT 12Z MONDAY FROM NWRN AR SWWD INTO CNTRL TX...ALONG AND AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE DAY
AND INTENSIFY...AS LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE REGION...INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A 50-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE STRONGER SLY FLOW WILL AID IN
ADVECTING LOWER TO MID 60 DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE
DEWPOINTS ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD MLCAPES RANGING
FROM AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS SRN LA/MS TO AROUND 250 J/KG ACROSS NRN
AR/WRN TN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS WILL
RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 50 TO 60 KT...WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR BOTH LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES.
THE STRONGEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET IS EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS AR/LA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND ACROSS MS/TN/AL MONDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
WSWLY FROM SERN TX EWD ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF LA/MS. WITH SSELY LOW
LEVEL WINDS...THE STRONGER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION
SHOULD SUPPORT MORE CELLULAR STORMS/SUPERCELLS. ALONG WITH DIURNAL
HEATING/MODERATE INSTABILITY...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY
STRONG AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS /1KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KT/ WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES...SOME STRONG.
ACROSS AR DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN EWD ACROSS TN/NRN MS AND AL
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...THE UPPER WINDS SHOULD BE SLY... RESULTING
IN DEEPER UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. THIS SHOULD BE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF A
SQUALL LINE. THE STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AND THE UPPER LOW
BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED BY MONDAY EVENING...SHOULD
AID IN THE SQUALL LINE /WITH EMBEDDED BOWS/TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD WITH
THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF A REAR INFLOW JET. WIND DAMAGE...POSSIBLY
WIDESPREAD...IS MOST LIKELY TO ORGANIZE IN AR DURING THE DAY...AND
THEN SHIFT EWD INTO NRN MS/TN BY EVENING ...AND THEN INTO MIDDLE
TN/AL OVERNIGHT.
.IMY.. 03/02/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment