SWODY2
SPC AC 061724
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 AM CST THU MAR 06 2008
VALID 071200Z - 081200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF COAST TO THE SERN AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...
..SYNOPSIS...
LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND SREF MEAN REMAIN IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE PHASING OF NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THESE TROUGHS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA
AND NM/W TX. MEANWHILE...A COUPLE OF SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSES NOW
MOVING EWD THROUGH MEXICO SHOULD ACCELERATE NEWD THROUGH THE SERN/
MID ATLANTIC STATES FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF PHASING SYSTEMS.
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR OR JUST
INLAND OF THE MS DELTA/NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AT 12Z
FRIDAY. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS/NRN GA BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING /08/00Z/...AND SHOULD
REACH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/WRN VA AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD FRIDAY AND SHOULD
EXTEND NEWD FROM THE NRN GA SURFACE LOW THROUGH WRN SC/NC TO THE
DELMARVA REGION BY 08/00Z. COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EWD FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH
OF THE SERN STATES REACHING CENTRAL SC TO SRN FL BY 12Z SATURDAY.
..NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SERN AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...
AT 12Z FRIDAY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND EWD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE ALONG THE
WARM FRONT GIVEN HIGHER THETAE AIR SPREADING NWD ALONG STRONG LLJ
AXIS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD INTO SERN/MID
ATLANTIC STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
STRENGTHENING SLY WINDS ACROSS THE ERN U.S. AHEAD OF PHASING TROUGHS
WILL ALLOW FOR NWD MOISTURE RETURN WITHIN WARM SECTOR FROM THE NERN
GULF AND ATLANTIC WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S REACHING
ERN NC/SERN VA BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MIDDLE 60S INTO ERN SC/
SERN GA. CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NWD WITH THE WARM FRONT GIVEN STRONG WAA. THIS COMBINED WITH
GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. ASCENT ATTENDANT TO
SUB-TROPICAL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR FROM FL NWD TO SC/ERN NC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE TYPICAL COOL SEASON TENDENCY FOR WEAKER INSTABILITY...
STRONG SSWLY WIND FIELDS DEVELOPING ACROSS A MOISTENING WARM SECTOR
SHOULD COMPENSATE AND SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR /SFC-1 KM SRH 200-400 M2/S2/ WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO AND DAMAGING
WIND THREAT. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD PERSIST SOME FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NNEWD AND THE UPPER TROUGHS PHASE
OVER LOWER MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST.
AN ADDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN AL INTO GA AND MUCH OF FL FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE
ACCELERATES EWD ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT.
.PETERS.. 03/06/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment