Thursday, March 13, 2008

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 130548
SWODY2
SPC AC 130546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2008

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK...ACROSS AR INTO
THE TN VALLEY AND SWD TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

..ERN OK TO TN VALLEY...

STRONG SPEED MAX WILL EJECT ESEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO N TX
BY EARLY EVENING WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG TRAILING
WARM FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER. STRONGEST ASCENT WILL BE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH EXIT REGION OF THIS JET TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. GIVEN THE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SCNTRL U.S...THE MAIN IMPEDIMENTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WILL BE THE SLOW RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INTO THIS ZONE OF ASCENT AND THE SOMEWHAT WEAK
CONVERGENCE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD
THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS TX AND LA WILL PROVE TOO CAPPED FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. COOLER MOIST PROFILES WILL BE REQUIRED
FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND THIS SHOULD INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS OK WHERE
MODEST SFC DEW POINTS WILL PROVE ADEQUATE FOR FREE CONVECTION
BENEATH COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...H5 OF MINUS 18-20C. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO AR/SRN
MO AND QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
HOWEVER...STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL BE NOTED BENEATH VEERED
LLJ AND SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SEEM PROBABLE ACROSS THIS
REGION AS SFC LOW/COLD FRONT ADVANCE EWD INTO AR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF GENERATING
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD
INTO WRN TN/KY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

..CENTRAL GULF COAST...

DOWNSTREAM...LATE DAY1 THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES. ONE LLJ JET SEGMENT WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THIS REGION AND THEN SHIFT EWD INTO NRN FL AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THIS SHOULD DRIVE ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE RETURN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE BUT DEEP
VEERING PROFILES WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR FAVOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH PERHAPS A FEW
WIND GUSTS OR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS.

.DARROW.. 03/13/2008

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