DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 181729
SWODY2
SPC AC 181727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF STATES TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

..CENTRAL GULF STATES TO DELMARVA...

17Z SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE UPPER LOW OVER
MEXICO...26N/104W...WILL SOON BEGIN TO EJECT NEWD INTO SCNTRL TX AS
UPPER SPEED MAX ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. H5 FLOW IN EXCESS OF
100KT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN GULF STATES EARLY...INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES BY EVENING AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOP OVER THE
DELMARVA...ROUGHLY 240M DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
NEEDLESS TO SAY VERY STRONG SHEAR AND FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM WITH STRONG FRONTAL FORCING EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN/INITIATE A
LINE OF CONVECTION ALONG ADVANCING BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...EITHER ACROSS THE
GULF STATES OR EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...DESPITE THE EXPECTED
RETURN OF SFC DEW POINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S AS FAR NORTH AS MD BY
20/00Z. IN FACT...MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 500 J/KG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE SLIGHT RISK REGION DUE PRIMARILY TO VERY POOR
LAPSE RATES. LATEST THINKING IS THERE IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TN...ARCING SEWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF STATES AS AN EXTENSION OF LATE
DAY1 ACTIVITY THAT WILL PROPAGATE INTO THIS REGION EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. A SECONDARY MAXIMUM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS STRONG FORCING
REDEVELOPS INTO THIS REGION. NWD EXTENT OF SEVERE MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED INTO SERN PA AND SRN NJ IF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CAN
RETURN AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT INCLUDE A
SLIGHT RISK INTO PA BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS AS SFC-BASED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE IF DEW POINTS CAN RISE
TO NEAR 60F. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WITH
STRONGLY FORCED LINES OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY WITH ACTIVITY ALONG
SHARP COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXTREME SHEAR.

.DARROW.. 03/18/2008

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