SWODY2
SPC AC 240459
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER MOST OF E COAST EARLY
IN PERIOD AS STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. NRN STREAM
PERTURBATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SRN BC
-- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD THROUGH WEAK MEAN RIDGING OVER NRN ROCKIES
DAY-1...THEN EWD FROM UPPER MS VALLEY...ACROSS GREAT LAKES...TO SRN
QUE DAY-2. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND SWD OVER CENTRAL PLAINS. SWRN SEGMENT OF FRONT
SHOULD STALL INVOF NRN OK OR SRN KS BY 26/00Z...EXTENDING EWD FROM
COMBINED FRONTAL-WAVE/LEE CYCLONE OVER TX PANHANDLE.
..SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
STEEP LAPSE RATES -- ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER -- WILL
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS S OF FRONT...AND ABOVE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER N OF FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH WEAK RETURN-FLOW
MOISTURE -- SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 40S-50S F IN SOME AREAS OF OK --
CONTRIBUTES TO SMALL AREAS OF WEAK LATE-AFTERNOON BUOYANCY SHOWN IN
SPECTRAL/WRF AND SOME SREF PROGS FOR 26/00Z. HOWEVER...COMBINATION
OF STG CAPPING AT BASE OF EML...AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST
MOISTURE/LIFT...SHOULD PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK BUOYANCY
ALSO MAY DEVELOP LATE IN PERIOD OVER PORTIONS SERN KS/NERN OK/SWRN
MO REGION AS WELL...IN ZONE OF STG/ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA. PRIND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK AND CAPPING TOO STG TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME AS WELL...UNTIL AFTER PERIOD.
.EDWARDS.. 03/24/2008
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