SWODY2
SPC AC 241728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2008
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE ZONAL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
MOVING INTO NRN MT WILL ADVANCE ESEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...SERN
CANADA AND PARTS OF THE NERN STATES. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH SERN CANADA WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCING SWD INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY TO A LEE LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WHERE IT WILL LIKELY
STALL. FARTHER WEST...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE PACIFIC NW.
..PACIFIC NW COASTAL AREA...
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DEVELOP ON CYCLONIC SIDE OF
APPROACHING UPPER JET WHERE THERMAL TROUGH WITH -36C AT 500 MB WILL
EXIST. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY...MAINLY NEAR
THE COAST. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND
SPREAD INLAND. AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
LIGHTNING WILL PROBABLY REMAIN OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST GIVEN
LIMITED INSTABILITY FARTHER INLAND.
..CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS THROUGH LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...
A SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT MODIFIED CP AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S TO NEAR 50 FROM THE WRN GULF NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND
LOWER-MID MS VALLEY. THE LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD BENEATH
PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT WILL ADVECT INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN
PLAINS RESULTING IN SOME DESTABILIZATION...PARTICULARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY MARGINAL OWING TO LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT NORTH OF STALLED
BOUNDARY AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET FROM PARTS OF NERN OK...ERN KS
INTO MO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THIS AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED TO DEEP
CONVECTION MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AND MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY
DEVELOP AFTER 12Z.
.DIAL.. 03/24/2008
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