SWODY3
SPC AC 210600
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2008
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD EVOLVE FROM CURRENT QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME TO
ERN CONUS SYNOPTIC TROUGH BY DAY-3. MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- INITIALLY EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY MOVING
INLAND PACIFIC NW -- IS FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS
DAY-2. PERTURBATION THEN SHOULD PIVOT ESEWD ACROSS TN VALLEY REGION
THEN EWD ACROSS CAROLINAS BY END OF PERIOD.
AT SFC...COLD FRONT DESCRIBED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK SHOULD SETTLE FARTHER
SWD ACROSS TX...NRN GULF AND FL...OVERTAKING ANTECEDENT FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS S FL OR ADJACENT STRAITS EARLY IN PERIOD...THEN MOVING SWD TO
CUBA. PROGGED NLY SFC FLOW COMPONENT ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONT --
ACROSS TX AND FL -- SHOULD RENDER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SHEAR TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SVR RISK WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN
DEVELOP DURING DAY.
..PORTIONS NWRN/N-CENTRAL TX...
SOME HAIL POTENTIAL AS DETAILED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK MAY LINGER INTO
FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THIS PERIOD AS TSTMS IN ELEVATED WAA REGIME
SHIFT SEWD ACROSS REGION. HOWEVER...WITH WEAKENING LLJ AND
UNFAVORABLE TRENDS IN BUOYANCY/SHEAR PROFILES AFTER 23/12Z...THREAT
THIS PERIOD APPEARS TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR AOA 5-PERCENT SVR
PROBABILITIES ATTM.
OTHERWISE...SOME DIURNAL THUNDER MAY DEVELOP INVOF UPPER TROUGH AND
SFC LOW OVER LOWER OH VALLEY REGION...HOWEVER MOISTURE APPEARS TOO
SCANT FOR SVR RISK.
.EDWARDS.. 03/21/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment