SWODY3
SPC AC 230642
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY
FROM DAY-2 INTO DAY-3 AS ERN CONUS TROUGHING MOVES
OFFSHORE...LEAVING STRONGLY ZONAL COMPONENT OF FLOW OVER MOST OF
CONUS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY
WELL W OF PACIFIC NW...NEAR 140W -- IS FCST TO MOVE EWD THROUGH WEAK
MEAN RIDGE OVER ROCKIES DAY-2. THIS PERTURBATION WILL REINFORCE
TROUGHING THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW MOVES EWD ACROSS LS AND NRN ONT.
BY ABOUT 26/00Z...ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW SWWD ACROSS MO AND NRN OK/SRN KS
AREA...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY IMMEDIATELY E OF DEEPENING LEE
CYCLONE OVER TX PANHANDLE. STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SRN PLAINS...ALONG AND S OF FRONT.
HOWEVER...SVR IS NOT ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF COMBINATION OF
1. STG CAPPING AT BASE OF EML...AND
2. LACK OF WARM SECTOR MOISTURE...DUE TO IMMATURITY OF GULF AIR MASS
MODIFICATION PROCESS.
.EDWARDS.. 03/23/2008
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