SWODY3
SPC AC 240623
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0123 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2008
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MEAN FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS CONUS...RIPPLED
PRIMARILY BY LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS UNTIL STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSES NWRN CONUS. DURING DAY-1...THAT TROUGH -- NOW
EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER SERN BERING SEA -- IS
PROGGED TO ORBIT WRN SEMICIRCLE OF LARGE/PERSISTENT CYCLONIC GYRE
COVERING GULF OF AK. TROUGH THEN SHOULD PIVOT EWD AND AMPLIFY AS IT
APCHS PACIFIC NW COAST BY ABOUT 26/12Z...PROCEEDING ESEWD ACROSS
NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY 27/12Z.
AT SFC...FRONT DESCRIBED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED TO STALL
ACROSS OH VALLEY AND OZARKS REGIONS...NEARLY PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT.
FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER OK SHOULD WEAKEN THIS PERIOD AS
STRONGER...LARGER LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IN
ADVANCE OF NWRN CONUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
..OZARKS TO LOWER MO/OH RIVER VALLEYS...
LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME -- ALREADY UNDERWAY BY 26/12Z OVER SRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS AND OZARKS...IS FCST TO SPREAD/INTENSIFY NNEWD ACROSS MORE OF
REGION DURING 27/00Z-12Z TIME FRAME. ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT OF
50-65 KT LLJ IS FCST...ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM TRAJECTORIES WILL HAVE
BLEND OF PARCELS OF MOISTENING WRN GULF ORIGIN AND DRY AIRSTREAMS
FROM SRN ROCKIES/NRN MEX REGION. STILL...MOISTURE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST MRGLLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
BETWEEN CENTRAL LOW PLAINS...OZARKS AND LOWER OH VALLEY. BY LAST
FEW HOURS OF PERIOD -- 27/06Z-27/12Z -- NAM-KF AND GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS EACH SUGGEST ENOUGH WEAKENING OF CAPPING AND INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MUCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THIS
REGION...ALONG WITH ENOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT LEAST FOR
ORGANIZED/ELEVATED MULTICELLS. ASSOCIATED SVR HAIL POTENTIAL
APPEARS NONZERO BUT IS TOO CONDITIONAL/MRGL TO FORM SPECIFIC AREA OF
PROBABILITIES THIS SOON.
.EDWARDS.. 03/24/2008
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment