Monday, March 24, 2008

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 241412
SWOD48
SPC AC 241411

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 3
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0911 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2008

VALID 271200Z - 011200Z

..DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER PATTERN FCST THROUGH PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH
NOW OVER SERN BERING SEA SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NWRN CONUS DAY-3 THEN
N-CENTRAL PLAINS DAY-4/27TH-28TH. GIVEN THAT THIS FEATURE
INITIALIZES OVER OCEANIC AREA AND IS LOW-AMPLITUDE...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF
AND MAJORITY OF MREF MEMBERS ARE REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH
TRACK/AMPLITUDE AND TRAILING JET POSITION DAY-4...WITH ONLY
RELATIVELY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. SIMILAR CONSISTENCY TRANSLATES
TO SFC AS FRONTAL ZONE -- DISCUSSED IN DAY 2-3 OUTLOOKS...SETTLES
SWD INTO OZARKS AND ACROSS MUCH OF OK DURING DAY 4. MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD MATURE SUFFICIENTLY FOR WELL DEVELOPED DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD
FROM FRONT OVER SW OR S-CENTRAL OK AND NW/W-CENTRAL TX. GIVEN LONG
ANTECEDENT DURATION OF MIDLEVEL WLYS AND LACK OF UPPER PERTURBATION
AT FRONTAL LATITUDES...ELEVATED MIXED LAYER COULD PRESENT DIURNAL
CAPPING PROBLEMS. IN SUCH A PATTERN...CORRIDOR NEAR FRONT CARRIES
GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR CONCENTRATED SVR EVENT THAN DRYLINE...WHERE
SHEAR ALSO SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SWD EXTENT. FROM DAY-5
ONWARD...INCREASING SPREAD IN PROGS OF FRONTAL BEHAVIOR...AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES FROM DAY-4...LEND TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY FOR ADDITIONAL SVR AREAS.

..RESENT PER REQUEST....

.EDWARDS.. 03/24/2008

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