SWOD48
SPC AC 230852
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2008
VALID 261200Z - 311200Z
..DISCUSSION...
IN LOW LEVELS...SEVERAL DAYS OF MARINE MODIFICATION WILL ENSUE
ACROSS GULF...AFTER INTRUSION OF CONTINENTAL-POLAR AIR MASS DAY-2.
ALOFT...LARGELY ZONAL MEAN FLOW FIELD WILL BE PERTURBED BY SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES...STRONGEST OF WHICH MAY CROSS NRN ROCKIES
DAY-4/26TH-27TH...THEN N-CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
DAY-5/27TH-28TH. ECMWF/UKMET ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS EVOLUTION
AND RESULTANT SFC FEATURES...WHEREAS MORE DISPARATE GFS RUNS FROM
DETERMINISTIC AND MREFS APPEAR TO BE LOWER CONFIDENCE SOLUTIONS.
UPPER PATTERN MOST PROBABLE FOR DAY-4 SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASINGLY
WELL DEFINED SFC DRYLINE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...BUT ALSO ROBUST
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WITH ATTENDANT CAPPING CONCERNS...AND STRONGEST
MOISTURE RETURN DISPLACED HORIZONTALLY FROM MOST FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
LIFT. SVR BECOMES MORE PROBABLE DAY-5 SRN PLAINS...AS RICHER
MOISTURE RETURN ENCOUNTERS STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS...DRYLINE
LIFT SOURCE...AND FRONTAL INTRUSION. SVR AREA IS SUBJECT TO
CONSIDERABLE CHANGE IN SHAPE/POSITION IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS GIVEN
DIFFERENCES STILL EVIDENT ACROSS BULK OF GUIDANCE PACKAGES FOR
POSITION OF MAIN BOUNDARIES.
.EDWARDS.. 03/23/2008
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