SWOD48
SPC AC 290903
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
..PLAINS REGION AND MS VALLEY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE DAY 4
TO 8 PERIOD MOVING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY QUICKLY
ENEWD ACROSS THE NERN US TUESDAY NIGHT /DAY 4/. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AND GFS TO DEVELOP IN THE WRN STATES
WEDNESDAY /DAY 5/ WITH A MID-LEVEL JET EJECTING EWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS THURSDAY /DAY 6/. ALTHOUGH...THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OUT OF
PHASE TIMING THE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS...MOISTURE WILL HAVE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SUGGESTING A LARGE
WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS
APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. AT
THIS POINT...ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE CURRENT ECMWF SOLUTION
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA FROM THE SRN PLAINS EXTENDING NEWD
INTO THE MS VALLEY.
.BROYLES.. 03/29/2008
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