SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012026
MEZ000-012230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0314
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 PM CST SAT MAR 01 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 012026Z - 012230Z
A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
LIKELY INCLUDING CARIBOU AND A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN MAINE.
SNOW RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY...AND MAY
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALREADY DEEPER THAN THAT
SUGGESTED BY THE RUC...BUT APPEARS ON PAR WITH OTHER MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH TRACK IT TOWARD THE DOWNEAST COAST THROUGH 02/00Z.
AS THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES...A NEW LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE
IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE/WESTERN MAINE...MUCH
AS PROGGED BY THE MODELS. AND...AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS NORTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK INTO NORTHERN
MAINE. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE
MIXED PHASE LAYER FOR LARGE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH...LIKELY
SUPPORTING A SUSTAINED BAND OF HEAVY SNOW THAT WILL PERSIST WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTH OF DOWNEAST MAINE...WITH HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER /AOA
.5 INCHES...AS INDICATED BY RUC GUIDANCE/ BEGINNING TO ADVECT
INLAND. NCEP-SREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT 1-3 INCH PER HOUR SNOW RATES NORTH OF HOULTON INTO MUCH
OF ARISTOOK COUNTY ...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF COUNTIES TO
THE SOUTHWEST ...BY 22-23Z.
.KERR.. 03/01/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...CAR...
46336768 46216838 46186904 46436957 46736967 47206962
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