MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0316

ACUS11 KWNS 021918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021917
OKZ000-TXZ000-022145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0316
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX INTO WRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 021917Z - 022145Z

SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IT SEEMS
MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT A WW WILL BE NEEDED...BUT UNCERTAINTY
LINGERS CONCERNING TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT.

UPPER IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IS NOW IN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
BUT...AS STRONG UPSTREAM POLAR TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS STATES...DIFLUENT AND CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. BENEATH THIS
REGIME...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS ALREADY BECOMING
FOCUSED ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE...SOUTH OF COLD FRONTAL
INTERSECTION THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS. THIS IS WHERE MIXED
LAYER CAPE IS ALREADY APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...AND LATEST RUC
GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKNESS IN INHIBITION...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE
INITIATION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 21-23Z.
THIS TIMING SHOULD PROCEED COLD FRONTAL SURGE...EVEN IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. SO...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED SUPERCELLS
IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ON THE WESTERN FRINGE
OF A BROAD 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SIZABLE...AND SUPPORTIVE OF
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/ LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

.KERR.. 03/02/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

35980005 36399998 36649934 36069865 34769849 34219868
33899884 33529960 34160015 35120018

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