MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0317

ACUS11 KWNS 021937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021936
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-030030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...ECENTRAL/SERN CO...SWRN NEB...WRN KS AND NERN NM

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 021936Z - 030030Z

HEAVY SNOW /HRLY RATES FROM 1-2 INCHES/ ACCOMPANIED AT TIMES WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD/NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ACROSS SERN/ECENTRAL CO...SWRN NEB...WRN KS AND NERN NM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SFC ANALYSIS AND REGIONAL VWP/PROFILER DATA SHOWS A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT/LOW LEVEL BARRIER JET WAS IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. AT MID
LEVELS...STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A WELL ORGANIZED BAND /50-100 MILES WIDE/ OF HEAVY SNOW.
WITHIN THIS BAND...STRONG NLY WINDS FROM 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER
40 MPH WILL PRODUCE BLIZZARD/NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR A 2-3 HR
PERIOD IN ANY ONE LOCATION OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES...OVER 2 INCH/HR...ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER SERN
CO/NERN NM ALONG THE UPSLOPE REGION OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTNS/RATON MESA. IN THIS REGION...A PROLONGED HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT
IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER SYSTEM ALONG WITH
STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW/UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THE FRONTOGENETICALLY
FORCED HEAVY SNOW BAND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD AROUND 30 KTS AND
REACH AN AXIS FROM NEAR LEXINGTON NEB TO COLBY KS TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD COLO BY 00Z.

.CROSBIE.. 03/02/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

..NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

41750065 40460183 38690417 38410531 37980555 36620562
35820510 35880379 36340315 36930261 38110149 39240034
40589977 41219999 41700031

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