SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022009
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-022215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0318
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE KS/SW NEB INTO NW MO...SWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 022009Z - 022215Z
THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED.
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTENING BENEATH A CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS.
BUT...LATEST RUC GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK TO
MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...INTO THE VICINITY OF A MELTING SNOW FIELD
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS COULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN NOW AND 03/00Z...AS SHARP SURFACE
FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION...AND
UPSTREAM IMPULSE LIFTS NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY MAY BE FOR THE FRONT TO OUTRUN THE
ARRIVAL OF WEAKENING UPPER SUPPORT...LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT. AND...THE STRONGER CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY BE
SHORT-LIVED AS THEY QUICKLY BECOME UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. THIS MAY
MITIGATE THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES...AND REDUCE THE
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.
.KERR.. 03/02/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
38949652 39639642 40249560 40809471 41029382 40299303
39719349 39169468 38729525 38589627
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