MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0346

ACUS11 KWNS 041656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041656
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-041900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0346
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CST TUE MAR 04 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL/SE GA INTO PARTS OF EXTREME NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 95...

VALID 041656Z - 041900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 95 CONTINUES.

A NEW WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH IT IS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL BY 18Z.

A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...ON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SPREADING TOWARD SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF
THE BASE OF THE VIGOROUS APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS PROGGED
TO GRADUALLY TAKE ON AN INCREASING NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON.

THICK CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF STRONG STORMS WILL INHIBIT
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BUT...UPPER
FORCING AND AN INFLUX OF RICHER MOISTURE ON MODERATELY STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 60S SURFACE
DEW POINTS...MAY COMPENSATE. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS...THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE EVOLVING CLUSTER...AND PERHAPS MORE
DISCRETE CELLS FORMING JUST TO THE EAST. BEST CHANCE MAY BE CLOSER
TO 21Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE SAVANNAH RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE BEST HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS CURRENTLY
TAKING PLACE.

.KERR.. 03/04/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

30678136 30318182 30118292 30428454 30638508 30818531
31758490 32418425 33378314 33908251 32938127 32248102

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