SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100300 COR
TXZ000-100500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0387
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT SUN MAR 09 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE PECOS VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
ADJACENT AREAS TO THE EAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 100300Z - 100500Z
CORRECTED WORDING AT THE END OF 2ND PARAGRAPH
ADDITIONAL STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06-07Z...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE
JUNCTION/SAN ANGELO AREAS.
ANOTHER IMPULSE/SPEED MAXIMUM EMANATING FROM THE BROADER SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS NOW IN THE PROCESS OF NOSING
THROUGH THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION. AND...STRONGER MID-LEVEL
COOLING/LIFT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET STREAK APPEARS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD THE PECOS VALLEY/EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION BETWEEN NOW AND
06-07Z. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE A
WESTWARD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE INTO THIS REGION...WHERE LOWER
LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM DESPITE THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING.
MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY OFFSET ANY ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL COOLING DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAINTAINING AT LEAST WEAK CONDITIONAL
INSTABILITY WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE 50+ KT MID-LEVEL JET AXIS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ALONG/WEST OF A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS. LOW MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY RAIN CORES... WHICH COULD
STILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BUT...THE RISK FOR
LARGE HAIL WILL PROBABLY BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...AS
SURFACE COOLING CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.KERR.. 03/10/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
30840165 31330139 31460086 31239985 30909946 30209954
29790049 29790103 30430150
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