SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142023
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-142300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0323 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/NRN/CENTRAL OK...SWRN/S-CENTRAL
KS...E-CENTRAL/NERN TX PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 142023Z - 142300Z
TSTM POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE AND MOVE EWD THROUGH REMAINDER
AFTERNOON ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA -- HIGH-BASED...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED STG-SVR GUSTS POSSIBLE.
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND VWP/PROFILER WINDS INDICATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF S-CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. ASSOCIATED STG/COMPACT PLUME OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE...ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HIGH BASED
CONVECTION. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CYCLONE INVOF NERN CORNER TX
PANHANDLE...FCST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NWRN OK THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT SEWD ACROSS SERN OK SHOULD LIFT NWD OVER PORTIONS
CENTRAL/NRN OK. CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPING ATOP VERY DRY SFC
AIR OF PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS -- E.G. DEW POINTS 20S F -- MAY MOVE
EWD PAST SFC LOW AND INTO WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AIR...WITH
DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 30S. MORE BACKED/SLY AND SELY SFC WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY PRESSURE FALLS NEAR AND N OF WARM FRONT. THIS REGIME WILL
RESULT IN INCREASE OF BOUNDARY LAYER THETAE...STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW
AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AVAILABLE TO ANY ACTIVITY MOVING EWD FROM
PANHANDLES. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STEEP LOW-MIDDLE
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 9 DEG C/KM...AND SFC BASED LIFTED PARCELS
BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT 01Z..SUPPORTING ABOUT 500 J/KG MLCAPE. 40-50
KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND 0-6 KM SHEAR UP TO 65 KT ALREADY ARE EVIDENT
OVER REGION PER VICI PROFILER.
SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND SMALL BOW
STRUCTURES...WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND GIVEN DEEP/WELL-MIXED
SUBCLOUD LAYER. MOMENTUM FROM VERY STG AMBIENT/GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT
MAY BE BROUGHT TO SFC IN MORE VIGOROUS DOWNDRAFTS.
.EDWARDS.. 03/14/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
35060009 35880131 37089993 37589951 37699878 37649793
37299712 36969674 36739661 36369655 35989665 35399705
35129742 35089982
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