SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150101
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-150130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0404
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN OK...SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 150101Z - 150130Z
WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN
OK...FAR SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN KS...AND EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN MO/NWRN
AR.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD TOPS CONTINUING TO COOL ACROSS NRN
OK..WITH SOME INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG ASCENT ATTENDANT TO LEAD MID LEVEL IMPULSE
AHEAD OF MAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO SWRN KS AND THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE LOW IS REDEVELOPING
SEWD INTO SWRN OK...WITH A WARM FRONT RETREATING NWD AND EXTENDING
NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL INTO NERN OK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR AND COMBINED WITH PLUME OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT DESTABILIZING AIR MASS WITH AT LEAST
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING WILL
INCREASE SURFACE BASED INHIBITION...A VERY DRY AND DEEP SUB-CLOUD
LAYER PER 00Z OUN SOUNDING SUGGESTS WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT AS STRONGER FLOW ALOFT REACHES THE SURFACE WITHIN STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A LOW
DEWPOINT WIND THREAT.
.PETERS.. 03/15/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
35359759 36129776 37099780 37439764 37479646 37429487
37269449 36379415 35409426 34819441 34949608 35129683
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