SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151722
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-151845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN GA...SC...CENTRAL/ERN AL.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 119...
VALID 151722Z - 151845Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 119 CONTINUES.
BAND OF TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED/TORNADIC SUPERCELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EWD ACROSS NRN GA. REPORTS OF TORNADO DAMAGE HAVE COME FROM POLK
COUNTY GA FROM LEADING SUPERCELL...WITH ADDITIONAL TORNADO REPORTS
FROM BARTOW COUNTY. THIS STORM MAY CONTINUE SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL
DESPITE MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR MASS JUST N OF SFC WARM
FRONT OUTLINED BELOW.
ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED WITH UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS NWRN GA...PERHAPS BACKBUILDING ACROSS NERN AL.
SUCH ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE MORE UNSTABLE SURFACE BASED INFLOW PARCELS
THAN INITIAL SUPERCELL BECAUSE OF CONTINUED SFC HEATING AND WAA..AND
NWD MOTION OF WARM FRONT. AS OF 17Z FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM
KERSHAW-GREENWOOD COUNTIES SC WSWWD ACROSS AHN...BECOMING SOMEWHAT
DIFFUSE ACROSS ATL METRO AREA BECAUSE OF CONVECTIVE EFFECTS FROM
THERE NWD. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING NWD ABOUT 10 KT
ACROSS NERN GA AND SC...REINFORCED BOTH BY DIFFERENTIAL DIABATIC
HEATING AND BY CONVECTION TO ITS N. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW...VORTICITY...AND 0-1 KM SRH WILL REMAIN
CONCENTRATED ALONG AND WITHIN 50-60 NM N OF THIS FRONT...WHERE
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE SFC-BASED INFLOW PARCELS STILL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. 0-1 KM SRH 300-450 J/KG IS INDICATED IN VWP DATA...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT INVOF FRONT.
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S ACROSS E-CENTRAL AL AND CENTRAL GA IS MORE
CONDITIONAL AND UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL FORCING S OF
FRONT.
.EDWARDS.. 03/15/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...
33308027 31968571 32148659 33358655 34008580 34878310
35018104 34667994
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