SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171802
OKZ000-TXZ000-171930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0439
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST OK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH
CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171802Z - 171930Z
MONITORING FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE RISK ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK INTO NORTH TX
EAST OF CHILDRESS. ALTHOUGH BACKGROUND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
SEEMINGLY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...AMPLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE INVOF
SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OK INTO NORTH TX. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
CONDITIONALLY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING AS MUCH AS 750-1000 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING THE
MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WATCH.
.GUYER.. 03/17/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
35319914 35259816 34109735 32519936 33120058
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