Monday, March 17, 2008

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0440

ACUS11 KWNS 172054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172053
OKZ000-TXZ000-172230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0440
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN OK AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124...

VALID 172053Z - 172230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124
CONTINUES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 124 CONTINUES UNTIL 00Z ACROSS WESTERN OK
AND NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL TX...WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS STRONG WIND GUSTS.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST
OK...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX...AND
A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. PREVIOUSLY WARNED
STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TX WEST OF ABILENE HAVE EXHIBITED A DISTINCT
WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST HOUR...AND WITH LIMITED LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT AT THIS TIME...THE LIKLIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL/WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNCERTAIN THROUGH SUNSET OWING TO EXISTING
CIRRUS CANOPY. FARTHER NORTH...THE RELATIVELY MOST
ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
INTO CENTRAL OK AND PERHAPS FAR NORTH TX. IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT...A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES
TO QUICKLY NOSE INTO OK AHEAD OF CURRENT STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTER OF
STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK. THESE STORMS COULD REACH
PORTIONS OF THE OKC METRO AREA BEFORE 2230Z/530 PM CDT...WITH A RISK
OF LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.

.GUYER.. 03/17/2008

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

31359855 31380035 33879919 36249760 35179635 33229711

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