SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191832
WVZ000-VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-191930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0474
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT WED MAR 19 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE/ERN TN...SERN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191832Z - 191930Z
BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS MIDDLE TN MAY INTENSIFY AS IT LIKELY
PROGRESSES E/NEWD INTO ERN TN/SERN KY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. AMIDST
A VERY FAVORABLE LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILE...A BREAK IN CLOUD
COVERAGE OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY PROVE ADEQUATE FOR SUFFICIENT
HEATING WITH ORGANIZED LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND A
POSSIBLE WW.
AS OF 1830Z...RADAR/VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS ROUGHLY FROM JACKSON TO GILES COUNTY IN MIDDLE TN...WITH A
60 MILE WIDE CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE LINE WITH SCATTERED CLOUD
COVERAGE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITHIN THIS NARROW CORRIDOR OF GREATER
INSOLATION /PER LATEST MESONET OBSERVATIONS/. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE APPROACHING 500 J/KG IN THIS
AXIS...GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. WITH AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET OVERHEAD /AROUND 100 KT AT 500
MB/ AND STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...THE
DEGREE OF FORCING/SHEAR COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS/SQUALL LINE...EVEN WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. GIVEN 0-1 KM
SRH WELL IN EXCESS OF 300 M2/S2...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
.GRAMS.. 03/19/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...HUN...
38158267 38038206 37638184 36928266 35608408 34808520
34518574 34688632 35108638 36168562 37198456 38058319
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@PO.UIUC.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment