SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292014
LAZ000-TXZ000-292215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0497
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0314 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SE TX...SW LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 292014Z - 292215Z
SCATTERED STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...MAY FORM BETWEEN
NOW AND 29/23Z-30/00Z. IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A WW WILL BE
REQUIRED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
DESPITE A TENDENCY TOWARD WARMING AT MID-LEVELS...LATEST RUC
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS
HAS BECOME NEGLIGIBLE INLAND OF THE UPPER TEXAS/SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA COASTAL PLAIN. MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF
1000-1500 J/KG...AND SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR
STORMS BENEATH A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK
COULD ENHANCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS MAY
ALREADY BE SLOWLY UNDERWAY...IN THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS.
.KERR.. 03/29/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
28739663 28849708 29479709 30369652 31449547 31609477
31349365 30569271 30099306 30019385 29589504
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