SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292026
SDZ000-NEZ000-292300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0326 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD AND NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292026Z - 292300Z
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM SOON ACROSS W CNTRL SD
INTO WRN NEB...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY. A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH JUST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WHICH WAS SURGING SEWD ACROSS WRN SD AND NERN WY. AREAS
OF STRONG HEATING ARE OCCURRING WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH COOL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES ALOFT IS RESULTING IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT EVEN WITH DEWPOINT BARELY INTO THE 30S F. CONTINUED
HEATING...SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET NEAR THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN STRONG
WIND GUSTS. VERY SMALL HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS...ESPECIALLY THOSE INGESTING DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 35 F.
.JEWELL.. 03/29/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...
44590298 45280244 45780223 45890160 45889990 45409998
44360026 42470176 41530256 41240305 41060364 41260389
42250386 43180381 43740372
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