SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300111
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-300215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0499
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...ARKLATEX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 300111Z - 300215Z
LARGE SCALE MASS FIELDS ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS INLAND ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WRN U.S. THIS NWD
FOCUS WILL LIKELY DRIVE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL INTO NCNTRL TX/ERN
OK/AR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE SHORT RANGE WILL OCCUR IN THE IMMEDIATE
ARKLATEX REGION AS STRONG CLUSTER OF STORMS LIFTS/DEVELOPS NNEWD
ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM FWD/OUN/SHV ALL
INDICATE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS
WHERE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP. LATEST THINKING IS GRADUAL INCREASE
IN LLJ ACROSS NCNTRL TX INTO OK WILL AID THIS DEVELOPMENT. HAIL IS
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
.DARROW.. 03/30/2008
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...
31739634 33989563 33479326 31809459
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