SWODY1
SPC AC 141225
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT MON APR 14 2008
VALID 141300Z - 151200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..PACIFIC NW INTO NRN ROCKIES...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS /I.E.
120-150 M PER 12-HR/ WILL ACCOMPANY MIDLEVEL TROUGH EWD/SEWD THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. THIS DYNAMIC
COOLING COUPLED WITH OVERALL COLDNESS OF MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH
/-30 TO -32 C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STEEPENING OF LAPSE
RATES AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
TODAY...BOTH ALONG PACIFIC FRONT AND WITHIN MOIST...ONSHORE FLOW
ACROSS COASTAL ORE/WA. A FEW DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES IN BOTH AREAS...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
..CAROLINAS...
COMPACT MID/UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED -10C TO -12C H7 COLD POCKET
WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY COOL/DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR AT THE SURFACE IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED
OFFSHORE SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND SUPPORT INCREASE IN SHALLOW MOIST CONVECTION...MOISTURE APPEARS
TOO SCARCE FOR MUCH IF ANY INSTABILITY AND/OR MORE THAN SPORADIC
LIGHTNING STRIKES. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONGER GUSTS MAY OCCUR GIVEN
VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BENEATH THIS WEAK CONVECTION.
.EVANS/MEAD.. 04/14/2008
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