SWODY1
SPC AC 131951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2008
VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
..NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SRN FL...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO
MOVE SWD THROUGH SRN FL AND AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM NEAR APF TO PBI. A
WARM/MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES S OF THE FRONT...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.
RECENT ACARS DATA OVER SE FL CONTINUED TO VERIFY THE EXPECTED
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WITH A SLIGHT WARM NOSE LOCATED
AROUND 700 MB. LIGHTNING DATA DID SHOW A STRIKE OR TWO ALONG THE SE
FL COAST JUST PRIOR TO 19Z...WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS
SRN FL ALSO SHOWED A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND AT THE INTERSECTIONS OF THE COLD FRONT/SEA/LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL FOR MORE THAN AN ISOLATED TSTM OR
TWO.
..ERN WA/ID PANHANDLE...
SURFACE COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE NWRN
U.S. WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS WA/ORE THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD
EXTEND FROM ERN WA TO CENTRAL ORE BY 12Z MONDAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH
MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.5 TO 7 C/KM/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME
CONVECTION AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL
COVERAGE CONTINUES TO PRECLUDE THE INTRODUCTION OF A GENERAL TSTM
AREA.
.PETERS.. 04/13/2008
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