Saturday, April 19, 2008

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191937
SWODY1
SPC AC 191934

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2008

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS/CAROLINAS...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OH
VALLEY ADVANCING SLOWLY EWD. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM
WV EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY INITIATE ALONG AND EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH AS LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT INCREASES FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY
WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...SOME SFC HEATING HAS OCCURRED FROM CNTRL SC
NWD INTO CNTRL VA. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED ALONG
THIS CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR WIND
DAMAGE MAY DEVELOP.

FURTHER NORTHWEST ACROSS ERN KY...WV AND WRN VA SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW COLD AIR
ALOFT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ESPECIALLY ACROSS WV. THIS
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS
THIS AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 04/19/2008

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