SWODY1
SPC AC 031628
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT THU APR 03 2008
VALID 031630Z - 041200Z
..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
TX...SOUTHERN OK...AND WESTERN AR...
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHWEST TX INTO THE
LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CA...WITH SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE UPPER FEATURES
PROGRESSING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE SUCH
FEATURE NOW MOVING ACROSS NM IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE/OBSERVATIONAL DATA INDICATE THAT ONE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MO. THIS TROUGH IS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE STRONGLY ELEVATED...BUT SUFFICIENTLY STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE MAY RESULT IN HAIL IN STRONGER
CORES TODAY.
IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL IMPULSE...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS NOW OCCURRING
OVER PARTS OF OK/TX. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CAPPING
INVERSION AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. A FEW
VERY HIGH-BASED AND ELEVATED STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
TX...BUT IT APPEARS CAP WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS MORE ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION UNTIL AT LEAST MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
CLOUDS TO ERODE AND FOR SURFACE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OK.
BY LATE AFTERNOON...A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS LIKELY TO BE IN
PLACE ROUGHLY FROM I-40 SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX. THESE
STORMS WILL BE IN REGION OF SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW LEVEL WINDS...BUT
DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL PROMOTE
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AS UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES...WITH STORMS MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME
ORGANIZED INTO A LINEAR MCS WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER AR.
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG COLD
FRONT OVER NORTHEAST OK...SPREADING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN AR AFTER
DARK.
.HART/HURLBUT.. 04/03/2008
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